The Quiet Threat: How Falling Measles Vaccination Rates Put Millions at Risk

In a world brimming with technological triumphs and medical marvels, one of the greatest victories of modern public health—measles vaccination—stands at an uneasy crossroads.

For decades, the global effort to vaccinate infants against measles has been a quiet yet stunning success. From a mere 18 million vaccinated one-year-olds in 1980, the number soared to over 100 million annually by the 2010s. By 2023, 107 million infants—more than 80% of all one-year-olds—received their first dose of the vaccine. That scale of coverage, illustrated clearly in the chart below, has saved an estimated 94 million lives. Outbreaks, once routine, became rare in many parts of the world. Measles deaths—so common they were once a grim rite of childhood—fell sharply. It was a public health revolution.

The Rise and Fall

But the curve is bending in the wrong direction.

Since peaking in recent years, vaccination rates have started to slip. The chart from Our World in Data reveals a worrying divergence: while the global population of one-year-olds has held steady at around 129 million, the number vaccinated against measles has dropped. The cause? A confluence of complacency, misinformation, health system disruptions, and shifting political priorities—exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Risk of Regression

This slippage is no statistical footnote. Measles is among the most contagious diseases on Earth. It requires a high level of population immunity—typically around 95%—to prevent outbreaks. When coverage dips even slightly, the virus seizes the opportunity. Unvaccinated clusters become epicentres, and measles spreads with brutal efficiency.

The consequences are already visible. In 2022, measles outbreaks surged in countries from India to the Democratic Republic of Congo. In some regions, decades of progress are being reversed in a matter of months. The virus, which science had cornered, is testing the world’s resolve again.

Preventing a Preventable Tragedy

The irony is bitter: measles is entirely preventable. The vaccine is safe, cheap, and remarkably effective—reducing the risk of infection by over 95%. It has few side effects and can be administered alongside other routine childhood immunisations. Yet, in 2023, 22 million children missed their first dose. That is not a failure of science; it is a failure of delivery, trust, and global solidarity.

To reclaim lost ground, governments must act decisively. This means restoring routine immunisation services disrupted by the pandemic, countering vaccine misinformation with clear and consistent public messaging, and investing in local health systems that reach even the hardest-to-reach communities.

Public health wins are rarely front-page news. But when they begin to unravel, the costs demand headlines.