South Africa’s higher education enrolment surges—but access isn’t equal for all.

South Africa’s higher education landscape has changed markedly since the dawn of the 21st century. Enrolment in universities and colleges grew by nearly 60% from 2002 to 2024, reaching 980,000 students. The face of that growth is unmistakably Black: today, 77% of all students enrolled in higher education are Black Africans, up from 60% in 2002. On the surface, this appears to be a triumph of inclusion and a sign that society is finally correcting the imbalances of its apartheid past. Data from the General Household Survey, 2024

But dig a little deeper, and the numbers tell a more ironic—and troubling—story. Let's explore this:

Representation Without Participation

While Black African students dominate the enrolment numbers, their actual participation rate—the share of 18- to 29-year-olds in higher education—remains stubbornly low. In 2024, only 4.6% of young Black Africans were participating in higher education, a slight increase from 2.9% in 2002. That compares unfavourably with 21.1% of Indian/Asian youth and 14.5% of White youth.

The data reveals a startling contrast: Black African students fill the majority of seats, but those seats represent a thin sliver of the eligible population.

Meanwhile, Indian/Asian students, a small minority of the population, participate at rates five times higher. This is a case of representation without proportion.

A Tale of Two Metrics

For Black Africans, growth stems more from demographics than equity. White students’ enrolment share crashed (27.5% → 10.3%), yet their participation rate barely dipped (15.5% → 14.5%). Indian/Asian students? Tiny enrolment share—but their participation rate skyrocketed.

The Democratic Dividend That Never Came

More access was supposed to mean more opportunity, so why is higher education still a privilege?

Enrolment is up, but structural barriers—crumbling schools, crippling costs—still lock out Black youth. The system expanded, but not equally. The real cost? South Africa’s survival. With youth unemployment at crisis levels, a system that favors a small, mostly non-Black elite isn’t just unfair—it’s unsustainable.

Widening access isn’t enough. The system must change—or the country pays the price.

Degrees of Change

So, what should change? The problem is not enrollment but access. Financial aid, preparatory schooling, and student support systems need urgent investment, particularly in rural and township areas. Higher education cannot be allowed to become a numbers game that hides its exclusions behind demographic shifts.

If the goal was to make higher education representative, the country is on its way. If the goal was to make it equitable, South Africa still has a long road ahead.

Until then, the paradox persists: more Black students than ever are enrolled, but most Black youth are still on the outside looking in.