A Year of Electoral Upheaval: Key Elections and Shifts in 2024

In a highly anticipated election, the United States saw a significant political shift as former Republican President Donald Trump defeated Vice President Kamala Harris, reclaiming the presidency for the Republicans. The party further solidified its dominance by securing majorities in both the House of Representatives and the Senate.

This marked the third consecutive U.S. presidential election where the incumbent party failed to retain power. It was also part of a broader global trend in 2024, with several incumbent parties experiencing major defeats.

• In the United Kingdom – unlike in the U.S. – political power swung to the left. The Labour Party won an overwhelming parliamentary majority, bringing 14 years of Conservative Party rule to an end.

  
  

• The most dramatic defeat for a longtime incumbent party may have occurred in the southern African nation of Botswana, where the Botswana Democratic Party lost power for the first time in nearly 60 years.

  
  

• In April, South Korean voters gave the opposition Democratic Party a majority of seats in the National Assembly in what was seen as a check on President Yoon Suk Yeol of the People Power Party. In early December, President Yoon imposed martial law and accused Democratic Party leaders of “anti-state” activities. The National Assembly quickly reversed Yoon’s decision, voting unanimously to lift martial law.

  
  

• Opposition parties of various ideological stripes won power in a diverse set of nations, including Ghana, Panama, Portugal, and Uruguay.

While some incumbent parties managed to retain power in 2024, they did so with significant challenges and diminished authority:

• South Africa: The African National Congress (ANC), which has dominated since the end of apartheid, failed to secure a majority in the National Assembly for the first time.

• Japan: The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), a dominant force in Japanese politics for most of the post-WWII era, and its coalition partner Komeito lost their majority in parliament.

• India: Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won a third consecutive term, but were forced into a coalition government, signaling a shift in voter sentiment.

• France: President Emmanuel Macron's decision to call snap elections during the summer misfired. His centrist Ensemble alliance lost significant ground to both the left-wing New Popular Front and the right-wing National Rally.

  
  

What Made 2024 So Difficult for Incumbents?

Globally, rising dissatisfaction with economic conditions and declining trust in democratic institutions drove voters to seek change. A visual analysis—such as opposing bar charts of economic sentiment and democracy satisfaction—highlights how many people rated their economic situations poorly and expressed frustration with the performance of their governments. These dynamics created a challenging environment for incumbent parties to maintain power.

Indeed, 2025 promises to be a pivotal year, as the world adjusts to the sweeping changes of 2024. It will be fascinating to watch how newly empowered governments deliver on their promises and whether incumbents who barely held on can regain public trust. Emerging trends in global governance, economic recovery efforts, and shifts in public sentiment could shape the narrative for years to come. Here's to seeing how these stories unfold! 🌍✨